Business Aviation Forecast: What to Expect in H2 2026

The business aviation forecast for H2 2026 points to another resilient period for the industry, supported by moderate flight activity growth, high aircraft utilization, and sustained demand across charter, fractional ownership, and the late-model pre-owned market.

Avi-Go data shows global business aviation flight activity increased approximately 4.2% year over year in H1 2026, providing a relatively strong base heading into the second half of the year.

However, demand is only part of the picture. Aircraft availability remains constrained by OEM backlogs, engine supply limitations, maintenance capacity, and completion-center bottlenecks. These conditions are likely to keep pressure on available inventory and support values for desirable aircraft through the remainder of 2026.

For operators, buyers, sellers, brokers, and other market participants, H2 is therefore shaping up as a constructive but supply-constrained period.

Business Aviation Forecast for 2026 at a Glance

Several indicators help define the outlook for the remainder of the year:

• Global flight activity increased approximately 4.2% year over year in H1 2026.
• North America represents around 65% of global business aviation activity.
• Europe accounts for approximately 14% of global activity.
• New business jet deliveries are expected to reach approximately 870 aircraft in 2026, around 3% above 2025.
• OEM backlogs generally remain around 18–24 months.
• The global business aviation fleet is projected to reach approximately 35,730 aircraft in 2026.
• Longer term, the fleet could expand toward approximately 40,500 aircraft by 2035.

Together, these figures indicate an industry that continues to expand, although the ability of manufacturers, maintenance providers, and operators to add capacity will remain an important constraint.

Business Aviation Demand Remains Resilient

Flight activity remains one of the strongest indicators of underlying demand.

Following the approximately 4.2% global increase recorded during H1, Avi-Go expects business aviation activity to continue growing moderately through the second half of 2026.

The outlook, however, differs significantly by region.

North America Remains the Largest Business Aviation Market

North America continues to dominate global business aviation, accounting for approximately 65% of worldwide activity.

Flight activity in the region increased around 3.5% year over year during H1 2026, and demand should remain strongest across corporate aviation, fractional ownership, and premium charter operations during H2.

Aircraft acquisition may also receive support from the reinstated U.S. 100% bonus depreciation regime for qualifying business aircraft, improving the economics of some new and pre-owned aircraft purchases.

With the world's largest installed fleet, mature charter infrastructure, and significant fractional activity, North America is likely to remain the principal driver of the global business aviation market through year-end.

Europe Continues to Grow, but at a Slower Pace

European business aviation activity increased approximately 1.6% year over year in H1 2026.

Positive growth is expected to continue during H2, although at a more restrained rate than in several other regions.

Operators and aircraft owners in Europe continue to face a combination of environmental regulation, taxation, operating-cost sensitivity, and uneven macroeconomic conditions.

Requirements surrounding sustainable aviation fuel, emissions reporting, and other environmental policies are also becoming more relevant to both operating economics and future aircraft-selection decisions.

Despite these pressures, Europe remains the world's second-largest business aviation market, representing approximately 14% of global activity.

Latin America and Africa Could Remain Growth Markets

While their overall share of global business aviation remains smaller, both Latin America and Africa recorded particularly strong activity growth during the first half of the year.

H1 2026 activity increased approximately:

• 9.8% in Latin America
• 13.0% in Africa

These markets could therefore remain important contributors to incremental growth during H2.

Brazil and Mexico should continue to represent major demand centers in Latin America, while resource-related, infrastructure-related, corporate, and project travel could support business aviation activity across parts of Africa.

Selected Gulf markets should also remain important demand pockets, particularly for long-range business aircraft and international missions.

Asia-Pacific Recovery Will Remain Selective

The Asia-Pacific business aviation outlook is likely to remain more fragmented.

Demand should continue improving selectively, with India and major regional business centers among the markets offering stronger potential.

However, aircraft transactions across Asia-Pacific can be more exposed to foreign-exchange movements, financing conditions, regulatory complexity, and differences in aircraft ownership rules between jurisdictions.

As a result, H2 growth is more likely to occur in specific markets rather than as a uniform regional expansion.

Fractional Aviation Remains a Major Growth Engine

One of the clearest trends within the business aviation forecast for H2 2026 is the continued strength of fractional operations.

Aircraft utilization remains significantly above pre-pandemic levels.

In Q2 2026:

• Corporate flight hours were approximately 141% above 2019 levels, with around 2% year-over-year growth.
• Fractional flight hours were approximately 280% above 2019 levels, with approximately 11% year-over-year growth.

The difference highlights how strongly fractional aviation has expanded since 2019.

Fractional providers are particularly well positioned in an environment where potential whole-aircraft buyers may have the appetite to fly but cannot obtain suitable new aircraft quickly because of OEM delivery backlogs.

For some customers, fractional programs provide access to modern aircraft without waiting for delivery or taking responsibility for full ownership and operation.

That dynamic should remain supportive through H2.

Charter Demand Should Remain Stable

Charter is also expected to remain an important component of business aviation activity.

Demand should be supported by leisure travel, major events, corporate missions, and long-range international flying.

Seasonal capacity pressure could become particularly visible around:

• North American holiday travel
• European winter leisure destinations
• Long-range international routes
• Major sporting and entertainment events

Operators with strong dispatch reliability, fleet depth, and access to desirable aircraft are likely to retain an advantage.

This should be particularly relevant for super-midsize, heavy, and ultra-long-range jets, where availability can become limited during peak periods.

Business Jet Deliveries Will Grow, but Supply Remains Constrained

Approximately 870 new business jets are expected to be delivered during 2026, representing roughly 3% growth compared with 2025.

While positive, the increase is unlikely to fully resolve the industry's aircraft availability constraints.

OEM production continues to be affected by factors including:

• Engine availability
• Supply-chain limitations
• Completion-center capacity
• Skilled labor availability
• Parts availability

Meanwhile, typical OEM backlogs remain approximately 18–24 months.

Long waiting periods give manufacturers significant pricing leverage while simultaneously supporting demand for immediately available pre-owned aircraft.

For customers requiring additional lift during H2 rather than several quarters into the future, the used market therefore remains an important alternative.

Pre-Owned Business Jets Should Remain Firm

The pre-owned market is likely to remain divided between highly desirable late-model aircraft and older assets carrying greater maintenance or operational risk.

Late-model aircraft with good specifications and near-term availability should continue to attract the strongest demand.

Buyers are likely to prioritize aircraft with:

• Complete records
• Recent major inspections
• Maintenance-program enrollment
• Modern avionics
• High-speed connectivity
• Premium cabin interiors
• Limited upcoming downtime

In these categories, broad price weakness appears less likely because supply remains relatively restricted.

An aircraft available immediately can have significant value to a buyer facing an 18–24-month wait for an equivalent new aircraft.

H2 2026 Aircraft Market Outlook by Segment

Source: Avi-Go Database

Super-Midsize and Long-Range Aircraft Remain Well Positioned

Larger aircraft categories should remain among the strongest areas of the market during H2.

Super-midsize aircraft provide a combination of range, cabin capability, and operating economics that makes them attractive for both corporate and premium charter missions.

Heavy and ultra-long-range aircraft benefit from another structural trend: continued demand for direct international connectivity.

For travelers prioritizing nonstop access between financial centers, secondary cities, and destinations poorly served by scheduled airlines, long-range business aviation continues to provide substantial operational flexibility.

Late-model aircraft in these categories should therefore remain particularly valuable when they become available for immediate acquisition.

Older Business Aircraft Face a More Selective Market

Conditions become more complicated further down the age curve.

Older aircraft remain viable for many missions, but buyers are increasingly evaluating the total cost of ownership rather than acquisition price alone.

Aircraft approaching major inspections or engine events can require substantial capital expenditure shortly after purchase.

Aging avionics, limited parts availability, less efficient engines, and uncertain long-term product support can also materially affect valuation.

The result is likely to be a wider divide between well-maintained, properly supported older aircraft and assets carrying significant deferred maintenance or technical risk.

Business Aircraft Pricing Should Remain Supported

Pricing conditions in H2 will continue to reflect the imbalance between demand for desirable aircraft and available supply.

Late-model pre-owned aircraft should remain particularly well supported because buyers requiring immediate capacity cannot always wait for a new delivery slot.

Seller leverage should be strongest for aircraft combining:

• Immediate availability
• Strong maintenance history
• Recent inspections
• Engine and airframe program coverage
• Modern interiors
• High-speed cabin connectivity
• Minimal near-term downtime

This does not mean every business aircraft will maintain its value equally.

Older or technically challenging aircraft may still require meaningful discounts.

Instead, H2 is likely to remain a market where quality, availability, and maintenance status create increasingly significant pricing differences between individual aircraft.

Financing Conditions Are Improving, but Capital Costs Still Matter

The financing environment is becoming more constructive compared with the earlier rate-hike cycle.

However, the cost of capital remains relevant, particularly for weaker-credit borrowers and transactions involving older aircraft.

Financing conditions may therefore influence demand differently across market segments.

High-quality late-model aircraft with strong residual-value characteristics generally remain easier to finance than aging assets with upcoming maintenance requirements or limited liquidity.

For buyers considering an acquisition during H2, financing strategy should therefore be evaluated alongside aircraft availability and technical condition rather than after an aircraft has already been selected.

Should Buyers Wait for Business Jet Prices to Fall?

For buyers seeking late-model aircraft, waiting for a broad market correction could carry its own risk.

The continued combination of OEM backlogs, limited desirable pre-owned inventory, and strong charter and fractional utilization suggests that significant price declines are not guaranteed in the most liquid segments.

Buyers requiring lift during H2 should instead focus on aircraft with:

• Transparent maintenance status
• Realistic ownership costs
• Complete documentation
• Suitable mission capability
• Near-term availability

An attractively priced aircraft can quickly become expensive if it requires substantial maintenance or experiences prolonged downtime after acquisition.

For that reason, availability alone should not replace technical due diligence.

MRO Capacity Remains a Major Industry Constraint

Aircraft production is not the only supply-side issue affecting the business aviation market.

Maintenance, repair, and overhaul capacity is also under pressure.

Shortages of maintenance slots, engines, components, and skilled technicians can leave aircraft grounded longer than expected and reduce available charter capacity.

This creates a commercial advantage for operators capable of maintaining strong dispatch reliability.

It can also increase the appeal of aircraft with recent major inspections and comprehensive maintenance-program coverage.

For both owners and operators, maintenance planning is becoming increasingly important to aircraft availability and economics.

Business Aviation Fleet Could Reach 40,500 Aircraft by 2035

The longer-term outlook remains one of gradual fleet expansion.

The global business aviation fleet is projected at approximately 35,730 aircraft in 2026, with potential growth toward approximately 40,500 aircraft by 2035.

This expansion will create opportunities throughout the aviation ecosystem, including aircraft sales, charter, management, maintenance, financing, data services, connectivity, and other supporting industries.

However, fleet growth also means the industry will need additional maintenance infrastructure, qualified personnel, parts supply, hangar capacity, and supporting services.

The industry's ability to expand this infrastructure will therefore play an important role in determining how quickly business aviation capacity can grow.

Key Risks to the Business Aviation Forecast

Although the H2 outlook remains constructive, several risks could alter the trajectory.

Macroeconomic volatility

A meaningful deterioration in corporate earnings, financial markets, business confidence, or private wealth could reduce discretionary charter activity and aircraft acquisition demand.

Geopolitical disruption

International conflicts or changes in airspace access could affect routing, insurance costs, fuel consumption, and cross-border business aviation demand.

Engine and MRO constraints

Limited maintenance capacity and shortages of engines or components could reduce dispatch reliability and temporarily remove aircraft from operational fleets.

Regulatory pressure

Environmental rules involving sustainable aviation fuel, emissions reporting, and taxation—particularly in Europe—are likely to have an increasing influence on aircraft operating costs and purchasing decisions.

Fuel-price volatility

A sustained increase in fuel prices would have the greatest effect on high-utilization operations and older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.

Business Aviation Forecast: The Bottom Line for H2 2026

The business aviation forecast for H2 2026 remains broadly positive.

Global flight activity entered the second half following approximately 4.2% year-over-year growth in H1, while charter and fractional operations continue to generate substantial aircraft utilization.

North America should remain the industry's dominant market, while Latin America and Africa could continue generating above-average percentage growth from smaller bases. Europe should remain resilient despite greater regulatory and operating-cost pressure, while Asia-Pacific growth will likely remain selective.

On the aircraft side, the defining feature of the market remains constrained availability.

OEM backlogs of approximately 18–24 months, combined with supply-chain, engine, and MRO limitations, should continue to support demand for desirable pre-owned aircraft.

As a result, late-model super-midsize, heavy, and ultra-long-range aircraft with strong maintenance status and immediate availability are likely to remain among the strongest assets in the market.

For buyers, acting quickly on the right aircraft may matter more than waiting for a broad decline in pricing. For sellers and operators, aircraft quality, reliability, and availability should remain major sources of commercial leverage through the end of 2026.

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