NHC: Tropical Depression Could Form by Mid-Week from Atlantic Wave Moving Off Africa

The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical outlook at 8 a.m. on August 23 saying a tropical wave forecast to move off the coast of Africa on August 24 could develop into a tropical depression by the middle to latter portions of the week. The wave was moving westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and forecasters said environmental conditions were expected to be marginally conducive for development. Forecasters said it is too early to determine whether the system will affect Florida.

If a named storm forms from the wave, it would be called Dolly, since Tropical Storm Christobal was the third named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season. The NHC is also tracking two other systems: a non-tropical low pressure area a few hundred miles west of Portugal, moving eastward toward Portugal and northwestern Spain at 10 to 15 mph but expected to encounter unfavorable conditions and dissipate, and Invest 95L, a broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda that could see some development over the next few days as it drifts northwestward.

Forecasters note that over 60 percent of the Atlantic's total hurricane activity historically occurs between August 20 and September 30, with the season's peak on September 10. AccuWeather, in an updated forecast released August 19, lowered its prediction for the total number of named storms this season but still projected three to five direct impacts on the United States. The 30-year average for the Atlantic hurricane season is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Early-stage tropical outlooks like this one are a routine part of the peak Atlantic season, when the majority of storm activity historically clusters in the weeks around September 10. Multiple disturbances tracked at once, as with this wave, the Portugal-bound low and Invest 95L, is typical of this window rather than unusual for it.

For business aviation, these outlooks function as an early trigger for contingency planning long before any track or landfall is confirmed. Operators and brokers with Florida or wider southeastern U.S. exposure use the days between an NHC mention and a possible depression formation to review aircraft positioning, alternate airports and passenger rebooking options.

The next markers to watch are whether the wave organizes into a depression by midweek, any subsequent NHC advisory naming a system Dolly, and how AccuWeather's already-lowered seasonal forecast compares with actual development as the season approaches its September 10 peak.