EUROCONTROL Forecasts European Air Traffic Above 36,000 Daily Flights in Mid-September, Easing to 28,000 by Early November
Why It MattersSeasonal traffic tapering still concentrates overload risk on Fridays and weekends at specific ACCs, meaning network-wide averages mask where flow-management measures actually bind.
What happened
EUROCONTROL's Network Management Directorate has published Edition 269 of the European Network Operations Plan (NOP) Rolling Seasonal Plan, covering the period from 14 September to 8 November 2026 across the European network. The plan projects Friday traffic exceeding 37,000 flights through September, with weekly daily averages of 36,065 flights for 14-20 September (+3.6% year-on-year), 35,676 for 21-27 September (+4.0%), 34,878 for 28 September-4 October (+3.8%), 34,145 for 5-11 October (+2.2%), 33,857 for 12-18 October (+2.3%), 33,029 for 19-25 October (+2.3%), 29,994 for 26 October-1 November (+1.1%), and 28,219 for 2-8 November (+1.1%). Traffic is projected to ease gradually from October onward, approaching 30,000 flights on Friday 6 November.
On en-route capacity, maximum opening schemes and specific Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management measures are required to handle forecast overloads at Area Control Centres including Wien, BH, Zagreb, Nicosia, Maastricht, Bordeaux, Brest, Marseille, Reims, Karlsruhe, Athinai, Makedonia, Skopje, Lisboa, Beograd, Ljubljana, Barcelona, Madrid, Sevilla, Zürich, London, and Prestwick, with these requirements particularly acute on Fridays and weekends. For all other ACCs, no capacity issues are foreseen, though demand may approach capacity during short peak periods.
On the airport outlook, EUROCONTROL's Network Manager said most airports are maintaining good operational performance, while it is working closely with airports at risk of Demand and Capacity Balancing issues, with particular attention to popular tourist destinations in Greece and Spain that remain busy into October. The full NOP covering 2026/2027-2030 was issued in April 2026, and the Rolling Seasonal Plan is published weekly on the NM Network Operations Portal, responding to the Network Strategy Plan (NSP 2025-2029) endorsed by the Network Management Board at NMB/38 on 22 November 2023 and approved through Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2023/2718 of 6 December 2023.
Industry impact & what to watch
This edition fits the pattern of a rolling, weekly-updated seasonal plan: it gives operators, airlines and airports a forward window rather than a fixed forecast, so the figures for October and November will be revised as later editions are issued. The year-on-year growth rates, ranging from +1.1% in early November to +4.0% in late September, show demand still rising even as absolute daily volumes fall through the autumn, which is why flow-management measures stay concentrated at named ACCs rather than easing network-wide.
How the segment manages this is visible in the list itself: capacity risk is not spread evenly but concentrated at specific centres — Wien, Maastricht, Marseille, Zürich, London and others — and specifically on Fridays and weekends, meaning airlines and ground handlers scheduling around those centres face a materially different risk profile than those routed elsewhere. The attention paid to Greek and Spanish tourist airports into October signals that Demand and Capacity Balancing risk lags the broader network's seasonal decline at leisure-heavy destinations.
The next dated checkpoint is the weekly refresh of the Rolling Seasonal Plan on the NM Network Operations Portal, which will show whether the projected taper to 28,219 daily flights by early November holds or whether the named ACCs require additional measures as the period approaches.
