North American Private Jet Flights Fall 2.6% Year over Year in October, Ending 19-Month Growth Run
Why It MattersOctober's split shows demand diverging by operating model, with owner-flown Part 91 weakening while fractional programs absorb activity, so the segment's growth now rests on one channel.
What happened
North American private jet flight activity declined about 2.6% in October compared with October 2025, according to ARGUS TRAQPak analysts. It was the first year-over-year decline since February 2025, ending a 19-month run of annual increases, and the first annual decline for any month in 2026. ARGUS had forecast a slight increase of about 1.1% for October.
By business segment, Fractional operations rose 5.9% year over year, Part 135 operations fell 1.2%, and Part 91 operations fell 7.8%. Within Fractional, large cabin jet flights rose 18.6%, small cabin jets 5.2% and midsize jets 5.4%, while turboprop fractional operations fell about 4.7%. Within Part 135, large cabin jet flights fell 4.4% and midsize cabin jets 2.3%, while turboprops rose 0.6% and small cabin jets 0.2%. In Part 91, every major aircraft class declined: midsize cabin jets fell 15.9%, large cabin jets about 11.3%, small cabin jets about 6.2% and turboprops 2.3%.
By aircraft class, the large cabin jet market saw the largest year-over-year decline in October. Midsize cabin jets fell about 3.5%, while small cabin jets and turboprops each recorded a decline of about 2%.
Month over month, October had approximately 3.5% more flights than September. Because October has one more day than September, average flights per day rose just 0.2%. Fractional activity saw the largest month-over-month jump at 7.1%, and both Part 91 and Part 135 operations also increased from September. Five of the eight FAA-designated regions in North America reported monthly increases. The Southern region recorded the largest gain at 17.1%, while the Western-Pacific and Southwest regions each rose more than 7.0%. The Northwestern US reported the largest decline at 13.1%, and New England saw a double-digit month-over-month drop. Caribbean activity increased about 11.1%, while activity in Canada decreased 6.2%.
Travis Kuhn, Senior Vice President at ARGUS, said Part 91 activity has been a soft spot and softened further in October, especially in the mid-size and large cabin segments, while Fractional activity continues to be a strong catalyst. For November, ARGUS TRAQPak analysts predict a 0.4% year-over-year increase.
Industry impact & what to watch
The October numbers show a market whose overall direction is being set by the balance between two very different customer models. Owner-operated Part 91 flying fell 7.8% while fractional programs grew 5.9%, and the headline decline is largely the arithmetic of the larger Part 91 base shrinking faster than the fractional base expands. A segment can post a negative total while one of its channels is accelerating, so the aggregate alone is a poor guide to where flight hours are actually going.
The class detail points the same way. Large cabin fractional flying rose 18.6% in the same month that large cabin Part 91 flying fell about 11.3%, which suggests demand for big-cabin lift is moving from owned aircraft into shared and managed programs rather than disappearing. For service providers, that shifts where fuel uplift, handling and maintenance volume is generated, even when total flight counts look flat.
The next milestone is November: ARGUS's initial forecast of a 0.4% year-over-year increase is a figure Kuhn said could change if Thanksgiving demand proves better than currently expected. Whether Part 91 stabilises or keeps widening the gap with fractional will decide if October was a one-month dip or the start of a longer divergence.
