Aviation Week Forecasts Business Turbine Fleet Growing From 36,643 Aircraft in 2027 to 41,136 in 2036
Why It MattersDeliveries running close to twice retirements, a strengthening pre-owned market and engine work absorbing more of MRO demand point to a segment constrained by capacity and supply rather than by aircraft demand.
What happened
Aviation Week has released its 2027 Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, a 10-year outlook for the business aviation and MRO industries. It was produced from independent projections by Aviation Week's internal forecasting teams, using data from the Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN).
The worldwide turbine-powered business aviation fleet is forecast to grow from 36,643 aircraft in 2027 to 41,136 aircraft in 2036, a 12% increase at a 1.3% CAGR. The jet segment sees the biggest gains, with the overall turbine-powered jet fleet growing at a 1.6% CAGR. The Super Mid-Size, Ultra Long Range and Very Light Jet categories grow at rates as high as 5% CAGR over the 10 years. Business turboprops grow more slowly, though single-engine turboprop types are replacing multi-engine models at a 3.9% CAGR.
The business aircraft MRO aftermarket is projected to grow at a 3.2% CAGR, reaching $173 billion in total demand. Modification requirements account for 32% of that total and are growing at a 2.5% CAGR, while engine maintenance represents 28% of demand and is taking a growing share of MRO requirements.
New business aircraft delivery values are projected to reach $304 billion at retail pricing over the next 10 years. Textron's product lines (Cessna and Beechcraft) are expected to lead in unit deliveries at just over 3,000 aircraft, while Gulfstream's delivery values are expected to exceed those of both Textron and Bombardier. Deliveries across jet and turboprop segments are forecast to reach the 1,200-unit mark from 2028 to 2035. Over the 10-year period, business jets account for more than 9,600 deliveries and turboprops for about 2,600, while 7,200 aircraft are expected to retire.
Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights, said new model entrants within legacy lines are keeping the new-aircraft market strong, and that unmet demand has pushed the OEM backlog higher with a spillover effect on the pre-owned market. He noted that fractional operators remain the fastest-growing segment, that new deliveries should rise by a couple hundred units in the near term, and that retirements are expected to stay muted, giving a delivery-to-retirement rate of nearly 2:1. He added that MRO costs, provider availability and supply chain issues remain concerns.
Industry impact & what to watch
A fleet growing at 1.3% a year while retail delivery value climbs to $304 billion describes a segment where value is rising faster than unit count. That is what happens when deliveries concentrate in larger, more expensive categories and when a delivery-to-retirement ratio near 2:1 keeps the installed base expanding without a surge in tail numbers. The ranking of OEMs reinforces the split: Textron leads on units, Gulfstream on delivery value.
On the MRO side, a 3.2% CAGR that outpaces fleet growth means demand per aircraft is rising, and the growing engine share is part of the reason. Engine work is typically the most capacity-constrained and capital-intensive part of the aftermarket, so a larger share there tightens the same provider-availability and supply chain pressure Kough flagged. Modifications at 32% of demand show that owners are still investing in existing airframes, which fits a market where new-aircraft backlogs push buyers toward the pre-owned fleet.
The near-term test is whether deliveries reach the forecast's 1,200-unit plateau starting in 2028, since the delivery-to-retirement ratio and the pre-owned spillover both depend on it. Fractional operators, named as the fastest-growing segment, are the group whose fleet additions would show first whether that growth is feeding the delivery numbers.
