Analysts: Boeing's 787 Rate of 10 a Month Won't Make the Program Profitable; Leeham Points to 14
Why It MattersThe 787's economics hinge on production rate rather than demand, so supplier readiness and Charleston capacity, not orders, will decide when Boeing's widebody program earns back its losses.
Boeing delivered about seven 787 Dreamliners a month in 2025 and plans to raise output to ten a month by the end of this year. Analysts say that rate is unlikely to deliver the profitability Boeing is seeking. Demand is not the constraint: Boeing has almost 2,500 orders for the 787 from 90 customers. Production is. Boeing set a 16-a-month goal in 2006, and the rate peaked at 14 in 2019 before slower demand, trade tensions and the pandemic forced cuts. Annual deliveries fell from 158 in 2019 to 14 in 2021, then recovered to 73 in 2023, 51 in 2024 and 88 in 2025, for 1,249 deliveries through year-end 2025. In the first nine months of 2026 Boeing delivered 62 aircraft: 15 in the first quarter, 25 in the second and 22 in the third, an average of 6.9 a month.
Leeham News puts forward losses, charges and adjustments tied to the 787 at just under $10.4bn as of July. The Seattle Times estimated Boeing had invested more than $32bn in the program before the first delivery to All Nippon Airways in 2011, three years later than planned, and a battery system redesign was required by 2013 after onboard fires. Leeham estimates the gross margin at about $35m per aircraft. Going from seven to ten a month adds 36 deliveries a year, or roughly $1.26bn in additional annual gross margin. Leeham's Karl Sinclair wrote that this is the current full capacity of the Charleston facility and "would not get the division back into the black," hence the expansion plans. One additional aircraft a month would add about $420m a year, and 14 a month, which is 48 more deliveries annually than at ten, would add about $1.68bn. Boeing does not publish per-aircraft margins, so these are estimates.
Boeing is investing an extra $1bn at Boeing South Carolina in North Charleston to build a second final assembly building of similar size to the existing 1.2 million-square-foot plant, plus a parts preparation area and an upgraded interior component section. Sustaining output depends partly on factors outside Boeing's control. In September, Boeing leadership said at Morgan Stanley's Laguna conference that GE Aerospace engine deliveries were behind schedule and certification of new seating configurations was taking longer than expected. The company said production had reached eight a month after a spring pause. As of July the backlog was 1,150 unfilled orders, which Leeham said firm purchases "barely supported" a 14-a-month rate, though options and letters of intent make that target more viable.
