Energy Analyst: Jet Fuel Prices to Stay 'Exceptionally High' for 6–12 Months as Refining and Shipping Strain
Why It MattersSustained refined-product and freight costs fall on operators across all aviation segments, and import-dependent markets such as the UK carry the greatest exposure to supply and price risk.
John Kemp, director of energy consultancy Base Research, warned aviation leaders that oil and jet fuel prices will remain "exceptionally high" for the next six to 12 months. He said oil markets have been hit by multiple disruptions, including the US-Iran, Saudi-Yemen and Russia-Ukraine wars, and that global oil inventories have fallen by about 650 million barrels since February.
Crude oil is trading at around $100 a barrel, below the level reached after Russia invaded Ukraine, and increases so far have been fairly modest. Refined products have risen more: the wars have affected one fifth or more of global refining capacity, refinery margins have surged, and diesel and jet fuel prices have reached $200 a barrel or more, the highest in 20 years. Kemp said the oil crisis has become a refinery crisis and increasingly a shipping crisis, with shipping rates up around seven-fold.
Kemp described the UK as especially vulnerable. It is the world's third-largest jet fuel consumer at 11 million tonnes a year and the largest importer of jet fuel by a wide margin, relying on imports for 75% of its jet fuel. In 2025, 75% of UK jet fuel imports came from the Middle East and India, both badly affected by the conflicts.
Supplies have been more resilient than feared because the US and Nigeria have replaced the UK's pre-war source markets. The US sharply increased jet fuel production, and nine of the 25 million barrels of jet fuel the US exported in the first seven months of the US-Iran war went to the UK. UK jet fuel stocks have remained steady, but at a significantly higher price. Kemp said inventories are now so low that prices will stay exceptionally high for the next six to 12 months.
