Ukrainian Refinery Strikes Reported to Strain Russian Aviation Fuel Supply; Su-57 Destroyed at Astrakhan Airfield
Why It MattersA prolonged squeeze on Russian aviation fuel and spare parts would weigh on both military and civil aviation there, though the claims are Ukrainian and unverified.
Ukrainian officials and analysts say drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have triggered a crisis in Russia's aviation fuel market, with regular attacks knocking out more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity. On October 29, a Russian Su-57 fifth-generation fighter exploded and burned completely at a military airfield in Astrakhan region; the aircraft is valued at around $150 million. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) said the fire broke out during engine startup before takeoff and blamed low-quality surrogate aviation fuel, to which the Su-57's engines are said to be critically sensitive. These claims come from Ukrainian sources and have not been independently verified.
HUR also said Russia is increasingly dependent on aviation fuel imports as domestic aviation kerosene production declines, and described a maritime scheme for importing gasoline and aviation fuel from the Vadinar refinery of Nayara Energy in India. It said RN-Aero, a Rosneft subsidiary that fuels Russian military aviation, has lost the ability to properly refine and control fuel components because of sanctions and infrastructure damage. Military analyst Oleksandr Musiienko said Russia restricted fuel exports this year while increasing imports for the first time.
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (FISU) described a crisis in civilian aviation: passenger traffic has fallen by 1.5 million people over six months, ticket prices are rising and safety is declining. It said an attempt to merge airlines into a holding company would not help, since Red Wings has only one operational Boeing, and that reorganization would not restore Western spare parts or stop the departure of personnel.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv is ready to pause attacks on Russian refineries for a month in return for an equivalent one-month package of Patriot air defense missiles. He said the attacks have been discussed with US President Donald Trump several times and that Ukraine cannot refrain from responding while Russia attacks Ukraine's energy sector. In gasoline, Russia's fuel market shifted in late October from shortage, with limits and rising prices, to high supply, as the government's ban on gasoline exports kept domestically produced fuel inside the country and station prices fell.
