Boeing Forecasts China's Commercial Fleet to More Than Double to Over 9,800 Airplanes by 2045

Boeing said in Beijing on Nov. 3, 2026 that China's commercial fleet will more than double to over 9,800 airplanes over the next 20 years, according to its 2026 China Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company's long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and related services. Passenger air travel in China is forecast to grow 5% annually, driven by an expanding middle class, more visa-free travel destinations and continued aviation infrastructure investment.

The outlook projects 9,240 new airplane deliveries between 2026 and 2045: 405 regional aircraft, 7,215 single-aisle airplanes, 1,460 widebody airplanes and 160 freighters. Single-aisle deliveries would account for 78% of the total and support domestic and Asia Pacific regional networks. China's domestic air travel market is expected to become the world's largest by 2045, while long-haul traffic linking China with Europe, North and South America, Africa and the Middle East is expected to outpace overall regional growth, driving demand for more than 1,400 widebody airplanes.

China currently has the world's second-largest commercial jet fleet by country, with nearly 4,500 airplanes. Of the 9,240 deliveries, 42% will replace older models. Boeing also projects that Chinese airlines will invest $875 billion over 20 years in digital services improvements, airplane maintenance and personnel training, and that China's aviation sector will require 425,000 new pilots, technicians and cabin crew.

"Our long-term forecast continues to show strong demand for new airplanes as China's passenger air traffic outpaces growth globally," said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing. Boeing has been in China for more than 50 years, and its workforce there contributes to the production of the 737, 767, 777 and 787 Dreamliner.