Global Jet Capital forecasts 2.8% annual transaction growth and $247bn in total volume through 2030
Why It MattersPersistent OEM lead times are pushing buyers with immediate needs toward the pre-owned market, reinforcing pre-owned heavy jets as a structurally faster-growing segment than new deliveries.
What happened
Global Jet Capital has published its sixth Business Jet Market Forecast, projecting that business jet transactions will grow at an average annual rate of 2.8% through 2030, with total transaction volume for new and pre-owned aircraft reaching $247bn between 2026 and 2030. Transaction dollar volume is expected to grow at an average annualised rate of 4.1% over that period.
Andrew Farrant, chief marketing officer at Global Jet Capital, said business jet flight activity rose 3.4% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, building on increases that began in Q4 2024. For full-year 2026, the number of transactions is expected to increase 3.6% while transaction dollar volume is forecast to grow 5.5%.
Heavy jets are expected to see demand grow faster than other size categories, with anticipated transaction volume increases of 3.3% for new heavy jets and 4.9% for pre-owned heavy jets. Transactions involving new medium jets and pre-owned very light jets are also projected to grow at above-average rates. North America is expected to remain the largest business jet market over the five-year period, with Latin America ranking second, driven by high demand for pre-owned jets, while Europe is forecast to remain an important market for new aircraft.
Industry impact & what to watch
This forecast fits into a broader picture in which order backlogs at OEMs remain high enough that delivery lead times stay stretched even as manufacturers steadily increase output. That gap between demand and available new-build slots is the mechanism behind the report's pre-owned emphasis: buyers who need an aircraft now, rather than in several years, turn to the secondary market, which is why pre-owned heavy jets are projected to outpace new heavy jet transaction growth.
The regional split reinforces how business aviation demand concentrates geographically rather than spreading evenly. North America's continued lead and Latin America's rise to second place, tied specifically to pre-owned demand, show that wealth creation and fleet turnover patterns differ by region even as the overall market grows.
What happens next depends on whether OEMs can narrow lead times enough to shift some of that demand back toward new aircraft, and whether the resilient economic growth Global Jet Capital cites as underpinning this forecast continues to hold through 2030.
