Geopolitical Risks Affect More Than 1,000 Flights a Day, Aviation Leaders Told at APG World Connect 2026

Geopolitical risks are affecting more than 1,000 flights worldwide every day, as conflicts, airspace restrictions and emerging security threats force airlines to change routes, suspend services and absorb higher operating costs, aviation leaders heard at APG World Connect 2026 in Monaco on November 5. The figure was presented during the discussion without a detailed breakdown of the flights involved.

Speaking on a panel titled "Geopolitical Risks: Protecting Airline Connectivity and Revenue," Arnaud Vaissié, CEO of International SOS, said geopolitical instability has become a persistent challenge for aviation rather than an occasional disruption. He identified the war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East as major challenges. Airspace restrictions are forcing carriers onto longer routes, raising fuel consumption and complicating aircraft and crew scheduling. Threats to airlines have also become more complex: alongside conventional security risks, carriers must consider missiles, drones and interference with global navigation satellite systems, which can affect aircraft navigation and operational decision-making. Vaissié described what was once an occasional operational challenge as now a structural feature of aviation operations.

Faye Malarkey Black, CEO of the Regional Airline Association, said geopolitical tensions affect airlines even when they do not operate directly through conflict zones. US regional airlines largely operate within the Americas, but their major airline partners serve international markets and face the consequences of airspace restrictions, fuel price increases and wider economic uncertainty. She described a domino effect across airline networks and said carriers are becoming more cautious about deploying aircraft and launching new services, particularly where financial returns are less certain.

Salvatore Sciacchitano, former President of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Council, said geopolitical tensions have affected international aviation for decades but that the industry needs to strengthen its resilience. He forecast that global passenger traffic could approximately double by 2040 compared with 2025 and almost triple by 2050, and named Africa and Central Asia as increasingly important growth markets alongside China and India. He said technology and artificial intelligence could help airlines and aviation authorities improve operational resilience.