EIA Cuts 2026 Renewable Diesel Production Forecast to 230,000 Barrels per Day, Holds Biodiesel and SAF Outlooks Steady

The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its 2026 renewable diesel production forecast to 230,000 barrels per day in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, down from the prior month's projection of 240,000 barrels per day, while keeping its 2027 forecast at 290,000 barrels per day; renewable diesel production averaged 190,000 barrels per day in 2025. On the consumption side, the 2026 renewable diesel forecast was held at 200,000 barrels per day, but the 2027 figure was trimmed to 280,000 barrels per day from 290,000 barrels per day, against a 2025 average of 160,000 barrels per day. Net imports of renewable diesel were kept at -40,000 barrels per day for 2026, while the 2027 forecast was revised to -10,000 barrels per day from zero previously, compared with a 2025 average of -30,000 barrels per day.

Biodiesel production forecasts were unchanged from the September outlook, at 100,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 110,000 barrels per day in 2027, versus an 80,000 barrels-per-day average in 2025. Net imports of biodiesel are expected to stay at zero in 2026 before rising to 10,000 barrels per day in 2027, while consumption is forecast at 100,000 barrels per day this year and 110,000 barrels per day next year, both unchanged from the prior outlook and up from a 70,000 barrels-per-day average in 2025.

Production of "other biofuel" — a category covering sustainable aviation fuel, alternative jet fuel, biojet, renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other emerging biofuels — is projected at 40,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2027, both maintained from the September outlook and matching the 2025 average of 40,000 barrels per day. Net imports of this category are expected to remain at zero in both 2026 and 2027, consistent with the prior forecast and the 2025 reported level.