Europe to Receive 900,000 Tonnes of Jet Fuel from Asia as Supply Risk Persists
Why It MattersThe shift shows European aviation fuel supply now relies structurally on Asian and other non-Middle Eastern sources, keeping costs elevated even as physical shortages ease.
An additional 900,000 tonnes of jet fuel from South Korea and other parts of Asia are on course to reach Europe in the months ahead, a volume that George Shaw, Kpler's senior insight analyst for distillate markets, said should lower the risk of supply gaps. Shaw told Euronews that high prices are nonetheless expected to persist, partly because jet fuel is closely tied to the diesel market, which has tightened further and recently hit record prices.
The average European jet fuel price reached $207.56 per barrel last week, the highest of any region and 27.8% above the prior month's European average, according to the International Air Transport Association's fuel price monitor. Rising crude oil costs and widening refinery margins drove the increase. Europe's exposure is acute because the region depended heavily on Middle East imports before supply routes were disrupted, and has since turned to South Korea, Nigeria and the United States.
Kpler's September data placed European jet fuel imports at roughly 672,000 barrels per day, with South Korea, Nigeria and the United States together accounting for about 60% of that total. Between July and September, approximately 1.31 million tonnes of jet fuel moved from Asia-Pacific to Europe, with South Korea supplying around 1.14 million tonnes, nearly 87% of the total. Shaw said these extra imports have so far averted a broad physical shortage and should carry Europe through the fourth quarter, which typically sees lower tightness as European aviation demand falls sharply from November, though price pressure would remain.
Kpler identified the UK and France as the European markets most exposed to fresh disruption, with September UK imports averaging about 177,000 barrels per day and France taking in roughly 73,000 barrels per day. The Netherlands received about 118,000 barrels per day, though some of that volume may have been re-exported through its storage and trading hub. Cirium noted that even when a country secures sufficient fuel overall, individual airports may still face shortfalls, citing an incident on 6 April when commercial aircraft at Italy's Brindisi airport could not refuel normally after a local supplier failed to deliver committed volumes, with fuel reserved for state aircraft, air ambulances and search-and-rescue flights; six other Italian airports rationed fuel the same week, capping most aircraft at 2,000 litres.
Cirium calculates that European jet fuel imports from outside the region were 22% lower between March and May than in the same three months of 2025, yet consumption across the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy fell by only 0.2% over that period, with the gap closed by higher refinery jet fuel yields and drawn-down storage reserves. Cirium's chief industry officer Mike Malik cautioned that neither approach can be repeated indefinitely. The International Energy Agency's September Oil Market Report said ongoing disruption in the Gulf and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was preventing oil flows from normalising, and anticipated a full recovery in Middle Eastern supply would be delayed until 2027; Shaw said meaningful relief requires more refinery capacity and larger aviation fuel volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz again.
