Record Diesel and Gasoline Prices Spark Fears of Physical Fuel Shortages Across the U.S.

Diesel and gasoline remain broadly available across the United States, but record prices and isolated diesel outages at some filling stations are raising concern that a pricing crisis could evolve into a physical supply shortage. As of September 20, the statewide average diesel price in Texas stood at $5.9779 per gallon, while in California, where refining capacity is more limited and air-pollution regulations complicate fuel production, the statewide diesel average reached $8.4244 per gallon, with regular gasoline at $6.1533 per gallon. Analysts note that proximity to supply infrastructure is becoming an increasingly decisive factor in both price and availability.

While outright shortages remain isolated for now, some station owners have reported running out of diesel, and petroleum product inventories have fallen close to minimum operating requirements, meaning daily consumption must come into balance with daily production. Observers warn that if the supply situation does not improve, more stations could find themselves without one or both critical motor fuels.

The disruption, which follows the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, is also hitting aviation, with several airlines announcing flight reductions in response to higher jet fuel costs. Analysts identify airports with concentrated, hard-to-substitute fuel supply as particularly vulnerable, alongside import-dependent markets in Northwest Europe and emerging economies where foreign-exchange and cargo-finance constraints can fail before physical stocks run out. Commentators describe a shift from a problem that money alone can solve — high prices — to a deliverability problem, in which fuel cannot always be physically moved to where and when it is needed, concluding that either supply recovers or consumption falls, with a consumption decline itself representing a form of crisis.