Five Countries Face Fuel Shortages on Day 203 of Iran War as Brent Crude Nears $110

France, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Nepal are experiencing fuel shortages or rationing as of September 19, day 203 of the conflict triggered by US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, which largely shut the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi advances at the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint have since closed the main bypass route as well. Brent crude traded at nearly $110 a barrel this month, its strongest level since spring. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said the market is missing about 2 million barrels per day of refined products from Russia and nearly 2 million more from the Middle East, while the International Energy Agency reported Gulf refined shipments remain below half their February pace and Russian diesel exports have roughly halved since June.

In France, 10% to 12% of fuel stations were out of at least one fuel between September 13 and 15, and SP95-E5 petrol hit a record €2.17 per litre after six straight weekly increases, with diesel within 1% of its April record. President Emmanuel Macron said on September 18 that France may release strategic reserves and called for a G7 meeting on coordinated action, days after fishermen blockaded the Fos-sur-Mer fuel depot and clashed with police on September 15. Pakistan reinstated emergency fuel curbs on September 17, 89 days after lifting them, closing shops by 9 PM and cutting government vehicle fuel allocations by 50% for three months.

Bangladesh, which imports more than 90% of its petroleum, has seen households in Dhaka schedule cooking around gas pressure and garment factories face rationing and power cuts. In Indonesia, fuel queues in Makassar stretched up to one kilometre by September 11, prompting South Sulawesi to impose rationing by decree on September 12 and protesters to storm a Pertamina Patra Niaga office on September 14, though Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on September 17 the Makassar shortage was resolved. In Nepal, the supplies minister resigned on September 10 amid a cooking gas crisis, students cooked rice over firewood in protest, and bottling plants in the Kathmandu Valley were delivering just 5% of the 35,000 to 40,000 cylinders the capital needs daily, with some households going a month without a refill.

With the Northern Hemisphere heating season approaching, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia face competition for winter fuel cargoes from European buyers, and Macron has called for a G7 reserve release before winter sets in.