Aviation Week Forecast: 1,860 New-Aircraft Deliveries in 2027 as Commercial Aftermarket Boom Nears End, but MRO Demand Stays Resilient Near Term

Aviation Week's 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast projects 1,860 new-aircraft deliveries in 2027. That would exceed the 1,792 delivered in 2018, the last full year in which neither Airbus nor Boeing was constrained by supply-chain or internal quality issues. Rising deliveries mean fleet replacement and growth needs can be met without extending the service lives of older aircraft and engines. High fuel prices are also making more routes unprofitable, prompting some airlines to trim capacity.

The forecast sees about 600 aircraft retirements this year, averaging 942 annually through 2035. The peak retirement year is now seen as 2031, having steadily slid later as older aircraft have stayed in global fleets. Southwest Airlines is on track to take delivery of 67 aircraft this year and retire 60, with larger figures expected next year. United Airlines plans to take more than 100 narrowbodies and about 25 widebodies in 2027.

Near-term MRO demand remains strong, though uncertainty over fuel prices and the demand impact of Middle East turmoil makes the medium term hard to call. GE Aerospace CFO Rahul Ghai said on an Oct. 20 earnings call that CFM56 retirements are now expected at 1.5 to 2 percent this year, versus an early-year expectation of 2 to 3 percent. Aviation Week's figures show 221 CFM56-powered aircraft retirements in 2026 as of Oct. 20. Safran CEO Olivier Andriès said on an Oct. 23 earnings call that the retirement rate should stay low this year and rise smoothly in later years.

The forecast projects a 3.6 percent compound annual growth rate for MRO over the next decade, below historical norms of mid-to-high single digits. Melius Research analyst Scott Mikus wrote in mid-September that a replacement cycle is underway, which is unfavorable for aftermarket companies that earn most of their profits from spare parts and maintenance services. RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert wrote in early October that MROs appear increasingly bullish about next year's outlook, counter to consensus investor sentiment, based on his quarterly MRO survey.

Retirement timing is what links the delivery forecast to maintenance demand. Older airframes and engines that stay in service keep generating shop visits and spare-parts sales, while a delivery-led replacement cycle pulls fleets toward newer equipment with less early maintenance content. That is the mechanism behind the analyst view that a replacement cycle favours manufacturers over aftermarket businesses whose profits depend on parts and services.

The two readings on offer are not contradictory so much as differently timed. GE Aerospace and Safran both describe CFM56 retirements as running lower than expected this year, which supports busy near-term shops, while the 3.6 percent decade-long growth rate sits below historical mid-to-high single digits. The peak retirement year sliding to 2031 suggests the squeeze is more a matter of when it arrives than of whether it does.

Two signals would sharpen the picture: the pace at which Safran says CFM56 retirements rise in later years, and whether fuel prices and the Middle East situation lead more airlines to trim capacity. Those are the variables the forecast itself flags as clouding the medium term.