Ibiza Airport Forecast to Reach 9.72 Million Passengers by 2031 Under Spain's DORA III Regulatory Framework
Why It MattersThe regulatory forecast signals continued near-capacity growth pressure on a Spanish regional airport without runway expansion, concentrating future investment on terminal segregation and processing infrastructure instead.
Ibiza Airport is forecast to handle 9,718,800 passengers in 2031, up from 9,173,500 projected for 2027, according to Spain's Documento de Regulación Aeroportuaria III (DORA III), approved by the Council of Ministers on September 15, 2026. The increase amounts to roughly 545,300 passengers, or 5.9%, over the five-year regulatory period.
DORA III retains the airport's annual capacity reference at 10 million passengers, meaning the 2031 forecast would represent about 97.2% of that ceiling, a margin of roughly 281,200 passengers. The document also sets system-specific capacity indicators of 40 aircraft movements per hour for the flight field, 45 aircraft per hour for the aircraft platform, and 4,400 passengers per hour for the terminal.
The final DORA III allocates €159.62 million in regulated investment for Ibiza over 2027–2031, below an earlier Aena proposal of about €229.7 million, with €55.246 million earmarked for adapting the terminal to new regulatory requirements. The remainder covers airfield and platform works, operational safety, information systems, electrical systems and sustainability.
Aena's modernisation focuses on the terminal rather than runway expansion, including increasing boarding gates to 32, adding eight new boarding bridges, a new pier for non-Schengen passengers, a centralised passport-control system and a redesigned security checkpoint. Aena said bridge access could rise from around 25% of high-season operations to approximately 75%, describing the project as driven by European security requirements and the need to separate Schengen and non-Schengen flows rather than a capacity increase. The terminal adaptation is identified as a long-term project extending beyond the five-year regulatory period, with full construction remaining a future phase. In the first eight months of 2026, Ibiza Airport recorded 6,778,163 actual passengers, a figure not directly comparable to the DORA III regulatory forecasts.
