Boeing Expected to Post Third-Quarter Loss of 21 Cents a Share Despite Higher Deliveries
Why It MattersBoeing's trajectory shows that clearing certification and delivery milestones does not by itself restore cash generation while 737 and 787 rate increases lag and development programs absorb spending.
What happened
Boeing is expected to report a third-quarter loss on Tuesday, Oct. 27, followed by an earnings call. Wall Street analysts forecast a loss of 21 cents per share, or approximately $153 million, based on LSEG data cited by Reuters. The company reported a loss of nearly $6 billion in the same quarter last year.
Boeing said it delivered 161 commercial aircraft in the third quarter, including 124 737s and 22 787 Dreamliners. The company continues to work to stabilize 737 production at 47 aircraft per month, although the ramp-up has taken longer than executives anticipated. Raising 787 production from eight to 10 aircraft per month has also proved difficult.
Last week the FAA certified the 737 MAX 10, clearing the final variant of the MAX family for deliveries after years of delays. In September, Boeing secured a multibillion-dollar contract to develop the U.S. Navy's next-generation F/A-XX fighter aircraft.
Analysts are focused on cash flow and production performance. Continued spending on 777-9 certification and on new defense manufacturing facilities is putting pressure on cash generation. Analysts anticipate approximately $330.5 million in third-quarter free cash flow and $2.3 billion for the full year. Boeing's shares were down approximately 17% year to date as of Monday's market open.
Industry impact & what to watch
The expected loss of $153 million sits against a loss of nearly $6 billion a year earlier, which shows how far the quarterly result has moved. Even so, a loss is still forecast in a quarter with 161 deliveries and two significant approvals, and that gap is the useful signal. For a manufacturer of this scale, certification and contract wins open future revenue, but cash arrives only as aircraft leave the line at the planned rate.
That is why the production figures matter as much as the earnings line. A 737 line that has not yet stabilized at 47 aircraft per month, and a 787 line struggling to move from eight to 10, limit how quickly delivery volume converts into cash, while 777-9 certification work and new defense facilities draw cash in the meantime. Lessors, airlines and suppliers planning around Boeing delivery slots read the rate figures more closely than the per-share number.
The next concrete checkpoints are the Oct. 27 release and the earnings call: the reported free cash flow against the roughly $330.5 million analysts expect, and whatever management says about when the 737 line reaches 47 per month.
