India's SAF Could Reach Jet Fuel Cost Parity by 2036, Report Finds
Why It MattersThe finding suggests SAF economics hinge on how costs are measured, with lifetime levelised analysis and avoided health and carbon costs able to shift commercial viability years earlier than single-year comparisons imply.
What happened
A report finds that India's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry could achieve cost parity with conventional jet fuel by 2036. The assessment argues that evaluating SAF economics over a full 25-year project operating period offers a more favourable outlook than comparing single-year production costs.
Power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) fuel is estimated to cost $1.42 per litre in 2030, compared with $0.97 per litre for conventional jet fuel that year. However, a 2030-commissioned PBtL plant is estimated to have a levelised cost of approximately Rs 127 per litre over its operating lifetime, narrowing the gap significantly. Researchers estimate that synthetic fuel plants commissioned in 2036 could achieve full levelised cost parity, and accounting for avoided health and carbon costs could potentially bring commercial parity forward to as early as 2030.
Historical data cited in the report show wholesale jet fuel prices in India rose around 5% annually in nominal rupee terms between 2005 and 2025, driven partly by dollar-denominated commodity inflation and rupee depreciation. India's agricultural residues and low-cost renewable electricity are identified as key feedstocks capable of supporting a domestic SAF ecosystem while reducing reliance on imported crude oil.
Industry impact & what to watch
This case illustrates how SAF economics look different depending on the measurement window: a single-year snapshot in 2030 shows a wide price gap, while a lifetime levelised view over a 25-year operating period narrows it substantially and moves full parity into view by 2036. That distinction matters for how governments and investors frame SAF competitiveness, since the choice of time horizon can change the apparent viability of a project by years.
Domestic SAF production is framed in the report as a hedge against currency volatility and global commodity swings, given that wholesale jet fuel prices in India rose around 5% annually in nominal rupee terms between 2005 and 2025. Feedstock availability — agricultural residues and low-cost renewable electricity — is positioned as the structural advantage that could let India build a domestic supply chain rather than remain dependent on imported crude.
Whether commercial parity actually arrives closer to 2030 or 2036 will depend on whether policymakers choose to price in avoided health and carbon costs, since the report treats that as the mechanism that could pull the timeline forward by roughly six years.
