Corporate Demand Could Support Up to 1.9 Million Tonnes of SAF by 2030
Why It MattersCorporate buyers co-funding the SAF premium through certificates could widen the pool of payers beyond airlines, but that depends on settled accounting rules and credible tracking systems.
Corporate demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could reach 1.9 million tonnes by 2030, up from an estimated 323,000 tonnes in 2024. That would be a strong demand signal for more SAF production, provided that unclear accounting rules, high prices and purchasing complexity, which limit corporate participation, are addressed.
Global SAF production in 2026 is expected to be just 2.4 million tonnes, or 0.8% of total jet fuel use, and SAF remains two to three times more expensive than conventional jet fuel. Letting corporates meet scope 3 emissions objectives for business travel and air cargo shipments through purchases of SAF environmental attribute certificates (SAF EAc) would share the cost across more participants in the value chain, and would require a robust and effective book-and-claim system. SAF EAc generally cost between USD 150 and USD 500 per tonne of CO2e abated, while companies report being willing to pay closer to USD 300. Airlines account for approximately 53% of corporate SAF certificate purchases. Jesko Neuenburg, Global Aviation & Travel Sustainability Lead at Accenture, said only around 15% of surveyed corporates are purchasing today, with the majority waiting for prices to come down, for carbon accounting to settle and for the buying process to become simpler.
Three priorities were identified to enable greater corporate participation: clear and consistent accounting rules that give confidence purchased emissions reductions will be recognized; transparent and interoperable tracking systems that prevent double counting and ensure environmental integrity; and simpler purchasing mechanisms, including greater price transparency, lower minimum purchase volumes and shorter contract durations.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, said SAF is aviation's most important decarbonization lever but airlines cannot shoulder the cost of scaling it up alone. She added that corporate participation alone will not deliver the scale required, and that continued government support, effective incentives and a significant expansion of production capacity remain necessary. Julien Manhes, Vice President, Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Carbon Dioxide Removal Development at Airbus, said book-and-claim can turn potential corporate interest into firm commitments and send producers the near-term demand signal they need to accelerate production and lower costs.
