Air India Group, IndiGo International Passengers Plunge Amid US-Iran Conflict and Pakistani Airspace Closure
Why It MattersA prolonged reciprocal airspace closure can reroute an entire national carrier group's long-haul network long enough to hand traffic share to foreign competitors flying unrestricted routes.
What happened
Indian carriers recorded sharp declines in international passenger numbers during the April–June quarter, according to Directorate General of Civil Aviation data released Thursday. The Air India Group, comprising Air India and Air India Express, carried 27.6 lakh international passengers to and from India during the quarter, down from 43.3 lakh in the same period a year earlier. IndiGo's international passenger carriage fell 15%, dropping to 33.4 lakh from 39.5 lakh.
Total international passengers travelling to and from India declined 10.5%, falling to approximately 1.7 crore from 1.9 crore a year earlier. Indian carriers as a whole saw international passenger carriage fall 26% during the quarter, while foreign airlines recorded a 7% increase in their India traffic over the same period. Emirates' India passenger carriage rose 7% to 14.8 lakh from 13.8 lakh a year earlier. Etihad's traffic held largely stable at around 8.5 lakh. Lufthansa carried 3.7 lakh passengers, up from 3.5 lakh, while British Airways carried more than 2.9 lakh passengers, a slight decline from approximately 3.1 lakh the previous year.
Air India's overseas operations faced additional pressure following the June 2025 crash near Ahmedabad, which prompted the airline to cut international flights. Pakistan's closure of its airspace to Indian carriers, in place since April last year and now lasting 14 months, has forced airlines to adopt longer flight routes, raising costs and disrupting scheduling. The restrictions have particularly affected routes connecting northern India, including Delhi, a major hub for both Air India and IndiGo, with western destinations. An industry representative said reciprocal airspace restrictions remain in place, called for a diplomatic resolution, and warned that the situation cannot continue indefinitely to the detriment of Indian carriers.
Industry impact & what to watch
This is a case of a geopolitical restriction reshaping a scheduled carrier's network economics for over a year rather than a single season: a 14-month airspace closure has pushed Delhi-origin westbound flights onto longer routings, adding cost and schedule strain that shows up directly in passenger volumes.
International long-haul markets work on reciprocity and route efficiency — when a bilateral restriction removes the direct corridor, carriers on the closed side absorb higher fuel burn and longer block times, while unaffected foreign carriers such as Emirates, Etihad, Lufthansa and British Airways can hold or grow share on the same city pairs without the routing penalty. Air India's separate reduction in international capacity after the Ahmedabad crash compounded that structural disadvantage during the same quarter.
Whether Indian carriers recover share depends on when the Pakistan-India airspace dispute is resolved diplomatically, since neither the DGCA data nor the industry call for resolution point to a fixed timeline. The next DGCA quarterly release will show whether the gap between Indian and foreign carrier growth rates widens further or begins to close.
