UK Sustainable Aviation Fuel Mandate Could Add $34 to Short-Haul Tickets, Cost Airlines $2.7 Billion Annually by 2030
Why It MattersThe mandate highlights a widening gap between SAF policy targets and actual production capacity, risking higher fares across short-haul markets before advanced fuel supply scales up.
Britain's mandate requiring sustainable aviation fuel to make up 2% of jet fuel supplied in the UK is set to rise to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040. A cap taking effect in 2027 will limit SAF produced from used cooking oil and animal fats, as the government seeks to shift investment toward newer synthetic fuels, though critics warn these advanced fuels are not yet available at the scale airlines need.
WPI Economics estimates the mandates could add roughly $2.7 billion annually to airline fuel expenses by 2030, translating to an added cost of about $34 per short-haul ticket that analysts expect airlines would pass on to travelers. SAF accounted for less than 1% of global airline fuel consumption in 2025 and typically costs several times more than conventional jet fuel.
IATA director general Willie Walsh said, "Mandating the use of a product that isn't available doesn't lead to any environmental benefit," and accused fuel suppliers of using European mandates to extract additional profit from airlines through compliance surcharges.
Britain has committed more than $270 million to support domestic SAF production, but many of the advanced facilities envisioned under the policy remain years from operation. Unless production scales up rapidly or the timetable is revised, travelers face paying more for short-haul tickets without any change to their onboard experience.
