Carriers Avoiding Russian Airspace Burn 13.8% More Fuel on Europe-Northeast Asia Routes
Why It MattersAirspace access has become a lasting cost and emissions divide between carrier groups on Europe-Northeast Asia routes, shaping which airlines keep serving long-haul links and which exit them.
What happened
Airlines barred from or avoiding Russian airspace burn 13.8% more fuel per flight on Europe-Northeast Asia routes than rivals that still overfly Russia. The analysis compared identical routes and aircraft types in 2019 and from March 2025 to June 2026. It estimates the extra burn adds 1.53 million metric tons of CO2 a year.
Russia closed its airspace to EU and UK carriers nearly four years ago, in 2022. British Airways suspended London-Beijing service in 2024, and Virgin Atlantic dropped Shanghai service the same year.
Finnair, which is not planning for the airspace to reopen soon, has seen its company-level gross CO2 emissions rise roughly 10% since 2019. Carriers that still use Russian airspace are adding European connections; Emirates recently launched a Helsinki service. The current jet fuel price is given as $4.59 per gallon.
Industry impact & what to watch
The comparison isolates airspace access as the variable: same routes, same aircraft types, different flight paths. That makes the gap a structural feature of the market rather than a one-off. On ultra-long sectors between Europe and Northeast Asia, a longer routing means more fuel uplifted, a heavier takeoff weight and less margin for payload, so the penalty compounds with every rotation.
The pattern in the route changes points one way. Carriers locked out are trimming or dropping China services, as British Airways and Virgin Atlantic did in 2024, while carriers with access are building new European connections, Emirates in Helsinki being the latest example. Finnair's roughly 10% rise in gross CO2 since 2019 shows the effect reaching company-level emissions, not just individual flights.
The next signal is whether the airspace position changes. Finnair is not planning for a reopening soon, so the fuel and emissions gap looks set to persist, and the remaining open question is how the extra burn is reflected in airline operating costs, which the analysis does not quantify.
